DRG Forecasts Total US Personal Devices Unit Shipments to Return to Pre-COVID levels in 2022
Saturday, March 12, 2022
BELMONT, Mass. , March 3, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- Daniel Research Group, a market research firm specializing in forecasting technology markets announces the availability of its updated U.S. Personal Devices 2022-2026 Forecast Report. The report is available on DRG's website, www.DanielResearchGroup.com.
Market Overview
DRG current forecast model projects that Unit Shipments for Consumer and Enterprise Personal Computing and Communication Devices will return to the per pandemic trend of slowly declining year to year Unit Shipments.
United States Total Personal Device Unit Shipments (M)
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2021 2022 AGR 2026 CAGR '22-'26
Desktop PCs
Desktop PCs 16.0 15.9 -0.6% 14.3 -2.6%
Mobile PCs
Traditional 65.6 64.2 -2.0% 54.5 -4.0%
Convertible 11.7 11.0 -6.0% 8.0 -7.7%
Total Mobile PCs 77.2 75.2 -2.6% 62.5 -4.5%
---
Total PCs 93.2 91.1 -2.3% 76.8 -4.2%
---
Tablets
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Detachable 23.9 24.3 1.7% 24.0 -0.3%
Slate 27.8 27.4 -1.2% 24.2 -3.1%
---
Total Tablets 51.7 51.7 0.1% 48.2 -1.8%
---
Total PCs and Tablets 144.9 142.8 -1.4% 124.9 -3.3%
--- ---
Mobile Phones
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Standard Phones 5.3 3.7 -31.3% 0.8 -32.7%
Smartphones 153.2 154.2 0.7% 146.0 -1.4%
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Total Mobile Phones 158.5 157.9 -0.4% 146.8 -1.8%
--- ---
Total
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Total Personal Devices 303.4 300.7 -0.9% 271.7 -2.5%
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infinityINTDelta Daniel Research Group (C) (2022)
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Trends and Assumptions
General
-- Replacement Rates will return to pre pandemic trends
-- Learn From Home and Entertainment From will drive demand in 2022 and
then dissipate.
-- Business will continue to add employees that will drive provisioning
demand.
-- The immediate and long-term impact of the pandemic may be best
understood in terms of the balance between Units added to the Installed
Base due to Unit Shipments and Units removed from the Installed Base due
to Replacement Rates.
Desktop PCs
-- Consumer Units Shipments will decline at about 4% annually consistent
with pre pandemic rates.
-- Work, Leaning and Entertainment Use cases will provide a floor such that
Household Penetration will only decrease to slightly over 41% by 2026.
-- The Enterprise Installed Base deceased by 24% in 2020 and 2021, and will
continue to shrink by 8.6% annually.
-- Enterprise Unit Shipments will remain essentially flat at -.5% annually
decline at about 10% annually as the increase in Densities balances the
decrease in Penetrations.
Mobile PCs
-- Household Penetration will reach 82% by 2026, Densities remain in the
1.06 -1.07 range over the forecast period.
-- Consumer Replacement Rates will accelerate through 2023 and the being
slowing resulting in Unit Shipments declining by an annual average of
-3.7% while the Installed Base increases by 3.5% annually.
-- Enterprise Mobile PC also experienced an Installed Base decrease in 2020
and 2021. This is reflected in the sharp drop in the Replacement Cycle
Length. Replacement Rates will return to pre pandemic levels and trends
in 2022.
-- Densities will continue to increase to above the pre pandemic levels as
the average size of businesses increase.
-- Convertibles as a percent of total Mobile PCs will decrease from 14.6%
to 12.8% over the forecast period.
Tablets
-- Tablets will continue to lose share to Mobile PCs in the Consumer
Segment as Household Penetration decreases slightly to 86.6% and
Densities decrease to 1.41 by 2026.
-- Tablet Penetration of business will increase to over 51% by 2026,
however Densities will decrease to 6.5 per business.
-- With Replacement Rates accelerating, the Installed Base will decrease by
4% annually even though Unit Shipments will increase 4% annually.
-- Detachables will account for approximately 79% of Enterprise Tablet Unit
Shipments and 44% of Consumer Tablet Unit Shipments by 2026
Mobile Phones
-- Over 96% of Households will have at least one Mobile Phone owner by 2026
with Densities dropping to 1.54 per Household.
-- 5G Smartphone will account for 89% of total Smartphone Unit Shipment by
the end of this year, and reaching 99.5% by 2026
About Daniel Research Group
DRG is a market research and consulting firm servicing technology clients. Its primary focus is developing custom market models and forecasts utilizing proprietary methodologies and algorithms developed over more than 30 years. The forecasts in this report were developed using DRG's EquilibriumSolver (EQS) methodology and application. To learn more about EQS, click on these links - Fact Sheet: White Paper:
Contact:
Steve Daniel, President
Daniel Research Group
(617) 484 - 6225
331061@email4pr.com
www.DanielResearchGroup.com
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SOURCE Daniel Research Group
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