|
Manufacturing PMI® at 50.9%; January 2025 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®
Tuesday, February 11, 2025
New Orders Growing and Backlogs Contracting; Production and Employment Growing; Supplier Deliveries Slowing; Raw Materials Inventories Contracting; Customers' Inventories Too Low; Prices Increasing; Exports and Imports Growing; This report reflects the recently completed annual adjustments to the seasonal factors used to calculate the indexes.
TEMPE, Ariz., Feb. 3, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in January after 26 consecutive months of contraction, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM(®) Report On Business(®).
The report was issued today by Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., Chair of the Institute for Supply Management(® )(ISM(®)) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee:
"The Manufacturing PMI(®) registered 50.9 percent in January, 1.7 percentage points higher compared to the seasonally adjusted 49.2 percent recorded in December. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 57th month after one month of contraction in April 2020. (A Manufacturing PMI(®) above 42.3 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.) The New Orders Index was in expansion territory for the third month after seven months of contraction, strengthening again to a reading of 55.1 percent, 3 percentage points higher than the seasonally adjusted 52.1 percent recorded in December. The January reading of the Production Index (52.5 percent) is 2.6 percentage points higher than December's seasonally adjusted figure of 49.9 percent. The index returned to expansion after eight months in contraction. The Prices Index continued in expansion (or 'increasing') territory, registering 54.9 percent, up 2.4 percentage points compared to the reading of 52.5 percent in December. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 44.9 percent, down 1 percentage point compared to the 45.9 percent recorded in December. The Employment Index registered 50.3 percent, up 4.9 percentage points from December's seasonally adjusted figure of 45.4 percent.
"The Supplier Deliveries Index indicated marginally slower deliveries, registering 50.9 percent, 0.8 percentage point higher than the 50.1 percent recorded in December. (Supplier Deliveries is the only ISM(®) Report On Business(®) index that is inversed; a reading of above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, which is typical as the economy improves and customer demand increases.) The Inventories Index registered 45.9 percent, down 2.5 percentage points compared to December's seasonally adjusted reading of 48.4 percent.
"The New Export Orders Index reading of 52.4 percent is 2.4 percentage points higher than the 'unchanged' reading of 50 percent registered in December. The Imports Index returned to expansion in January, registering 51.1 percent, 1.4 percentage points higher than December's reading of 49.7 percent."
Fiore continues, "U.S. manufacturing activity expanded in January after 26 consecutive months of contraction. Demand clearly improved, while output expanded and inputs remained accommodative. Demand improvement includes: the (1) New Orders Index moving further into expansion territory, (2) New Export Orders Index moving back into expansion, (3) Backlog of Orders Index dropping slightly and continuing in contraction, and (4) Customers' Inventories Index remaining in 'too low' territory. Output (measured by the Production and Employment indexes) was positive, as factory output improved compared to December, indicating that panelists' companies are proceeding with growth plans. Employment was stable as final head-count adjustments were made, in many cases among the white-collar workforces. Inputs -- defined as supplier deliveries, inventories, prices and imports -- generally continued to accommodate future demand growth, with inventories declining, but imports returning to expansion, prices increasing and supplier deliveries marginally slowing.
"Demand and production improved; and employment expanded. However, staff reductions continued with many companies, but at weaker rates. Prices growth was moderate, indicating that further growth will put additional pressure on prices. As predicted, maintaining a slower rate of price increases as demand returns will be a major challenge for 2025. Forty-three percent of manufacturing gross domestic product (GDP) contracted in January, down from 52 percent in December. The share of manufacturing sector GDP registering a composite PMI(®) calculation at or below 45 percent (a good barometer of overall manufacturing weakness) was 8 percent in January, a dramatic 41-percentage point improvement compared to the 49 percent reported in December. Four of the six largest manufacturing industries (Petroleum & Coal Products; Chemical Products; Machinery; and Transportation Equipment) expanded in January, up from none in December," says Fiore.
The eight manufacturing industries reporting growth in January -- listed in order -- are: Textile Mills; Primary Metals; Petroleum & Coal Products; Chemical Products; Machinery; Transportation Equipment; Plastics & Rubber Products; and Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components. The eight industries reporting contraction in January -- in the following order -- are: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Wood Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Furniture & Related Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Paper Products; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products.
WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING
-- "Customer orders slightly stronger than expected. Seeing more general
price increases for chemicals/raw materials. No International
Longshoremen's Association strike is a tremendous help." [Chemical
Products]
-- "Alleviating supply chain conditions are noticeably pivoting back into
acute shortage situations, with headwinds following. For aerospace and
defense companies, critical minerals supply chains are tightening
dramatically due to Chinese restrictions. Concerns are growing of an
environment of more supply chain shortages." [Transportation Equipment]
-- "As the U.S. administration transfers, we will continue to monitor
impact of tariffs on materials used for manufacturing. China stimulus is
helping us win orders and increase use of services and consumables. Cost
pressures remain for all materials and parts but are starting to
stabilize." [Computer & Electronic Products]
-- "Volume in 2025 is targeting 2-percent growth. The organization is
mindful of potential tariffs and what to do with re-routing or cost
increases in supply chains that are impacted." [Food, Beverage & Tobacco
Products]
-- "Although we are in our busy season, our demand for the first two weeks
of 2025 has outpaced normal levels for this period of time." [Machinery]
-- "Business is slowly improving." [Electrical Equipment, Appliances &
Components]
-- "Capital equipment sales are starting 2025 off strong. Normally, we see
a soft start to the year, so this strong start is unusual." [Fabricated
Metal Products]
-- "New orders are still good but decreasing compared to previous quarters.
Working through current backlog." [Miscellaneous Manufacturing]
-- "Automotive order demand continues to be consistent and on a steady
pace. Beginning to look at hiring additional team members once again.
Pricing is holding firm. Having to work overtime to cover plant
inefficiency to date." [Primary Metals]
-- "Looking forward to a year of strong customer demand and higher sales
than 2024." [Textile Mills]
MANUFACTURING AT A GLANCE
January 2025
Index Series Series Percentage Direction Rate of Trend*
Index Index Change (Months)
Point
Jan Dec
Change
Manufacturing PMI(R) 50.9 49.2 +1.7 Growing From 1
Contracting
New Orders 55.1 52.1 +3.0 Growing Faster 3
Production 52.5 49.9 +2.6 Growing From 1
Contracting
Employment 50.3 45.4 +4.9 Growing From 1
Contracting
Supplier Deliveries 50.9 50.1 +0.8 Slowing Faster 2
Inventories 45.9 48.4 -2.5 Contracting Faster 5
Customers' Inventories 46.7 46.7 0.0 Too Low Same 4
Prices 54.9 52.5 +2.4 Increasing Faster 4
Backlog of Orders 44.9 45.9 -1.0 Contracting Faster 28
New Export Orders 52.4 50.0 +2.4 Growing From 1
Unchanged
Imports 51.1 49.7 +1.4 Growing From 1
Contracting
OVERALL ECONOMY Growing Faster 57
Manufacturing Sector Growing From 1
Contracting
Manufacturing ISM(®) Report On Business(®) data is seasonally adjusted for the New Orders, Production, Employment and Inventories indexes.
*Number of months moving in current direction.
Indexes reflect newly released seasonal adjustment factors.
COMMODITIES REPORTED UP/DOWN IN PRICE AND IN SHORT SUPPLY
Commodities Up in Price
Aluminum* (14); Aluminum Coil; Freight Rates; Industrial Gases; Natural Gas (4); Packaging Materials (2); Steel -- Scrap; and Sulfur.
Commodities Down in Price
Aluminum*; Plastic Resins (3); Polypropylene Resin (2); Solvents (3); Steel -- General (2); and Steel -- Hot Rolled (3).
Commodities in Short Supply
Electrical Components (52); Electronic Components (10); Labor -- Construction; Rare Earths; and Semiconductors.
Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item.
*Indicates both up and down in price.
JANUARY 2025 MANUFACTURING INDEX SUMMARIES
Manufacturing PMI(®
)The U.S. manufacturing sector expanded for first time in January after 26 months of contraction, as the Manufacturing PMI(®) registered 50.9 percent, 1.7 percentage points higher compared to the seasonally adjusted 49.2 percent reported in December. "The PMI(®) has increased for three consecutive months, with the most recent bump finally returning the manufacturing sector to expansion. Of the five subindexes that directly factor into the Manufacturing PMI(®), four (New Orders, Production, Employment and Supplier Deliveries) were in expansion territory, compared to three in December. The Employment Index expanded in January after seven months in contraction, and the New Orders Index moved further into expansion. Of the six biggest manufacturing industries, four (Petroleum & Coal Products; Chemical Products; Machinery; and Transportation Equipment) registered growth," says Fiore. A reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing sector is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally contracting.
A Manufacturing PMI(®) above 42.3 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the January Manufacturing PMI(®) indicates the overall economy grew for the 57th straight month after last contracting in April 2020. "The past relationship between the Manufacturing PMI(®) and the overall economy indicates that the January reading (50.9 percent) corresponds to a change of plus-2.4 percent in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis," says Fiore.
THE LAST 12 MONTHS
Month Manufacturing Month Manufacturing
PMI(R) PMI(R)
Jan 2025 50.9 Jul 2024 47.0
Dec 2024 49.2 Jun 2024 48.3
Nov 2024 48.4 May 2024 48.5
Oct 2024 46.9 Apr 2024 48.8
Sep 2024 47.5 Mar 2024 49.8
Aug 2024 47.5 Feb 2024 47.6
Average for 12 months - 48.4
High - 50.9
Low - 46.9
New Orders
ISM(®)'s New Orders Index expanded in January for the third consecutive month after seven months in contraction, registering 55.1 percent, an increase of 3 percentage points compared to December's seasonally adjusted figure of 52.1 percent. The New Orders Index hasn't indicated consistent growth since a 24-month streak of expansion ended in May 2022. "Of the six largest manufacturing sectors, four (Petroleum & Coal Products; Machinery; Chemical Products; and Transportation Equipment) reported increased new orders. Panelists noted an improved level of demand performance, with a 2-to-1 ratio of positive comments versus those expressing concern about near-term demand, an improvement compared to December. Capital and export orders were significant contributors," says Fiore. A New Orders Index above 52.1 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Census Bureau's series on manufacturing orders (in constant 2000 dollars).
The nine manufacturing industries that reported growth in new orders in January, in order, are: Textile Mills; Primary Metals; Petroleum & Coal Products; Machinery; Chemical Products; Transportation Equipment; Plastics & Rubber Products; Fabricated Metal Products; and Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components. The five industries reporting a decline in new orders in January are: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Wood Products; Furniture & Related Products; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products.
New Orders %Higher %Same %Lower Net Index
Jan 2025 26.3 53.7 20.0 +6.3 55.1
Dec 2024 21.0 54.9 24.1 -3.1 52.1
Nov 2024 21.0 54.3 24.7 -3.7 50.3
Oct 2024 20.4 50.6 29.0 -8.6 47.9
Production
The Production Index elevated into expansion territory in January, registering 52.5 percent, 2.6 percentage points higher than the seasonally adjusted December reading of 49.9 percent. Prior to this month's reading, the index was in contraction territory for eight consecutive months. The last time the index registered above 50 percent was in April 2024 (50.7 percent). Of the six largest manufacturing sectors, three (Machinery; Transportation Equipment; and Chemical Products) reported increased production. "Production levels improved in January, led by the more capital-intensive industry sectors and in spite of weather issues," says Fiore. An index above 52.1 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Federal Reserve Board's Industrial Production figures.
The six industries reporting growth in production during the month of January, in order, are: Textile Mills; Plastics & Rubber Products; Machinery; Transportation Equipment; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; and Chemical Products. The five industries reporting a decrease in production in January are: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Wood Products; Furniture & Related Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing. Six industries reported no change in production levels in January as compared to December.
Production %Higher %Same %Lower Net Index
Jan 2025 19.4 62.1 18.5 +0.9 52.5
Dec 2024 15.3 59.3 25.4 -10.1 49.9
Nov 2024 15.9 63.2 20.9 -5.0 47.5
Oct 2024 16.8 59.3 23.9 -7.1 47.0
Employment
ISM(®)'s Employment Index registered 50.3 percent in January, 4.9 percentage points higher than December's seasonally adjusted reading of 45.4 percent. "The index has returned to expansion after contracting in 14 of the last 16 months. Of the six big manufacturing sectors, two (Chemical Products; and Transportation Equipment) expanded employment in January. Respondents' companies are continuing to reduce head counts through layoffs, attrition and hiring freezes. This action is supported in January by the approximately 1-to-1 ratio of hiring versus staff-reduction comments, compared to a 1-to-2 ratio the previous month, meaning less workforce reduction activity is occurring as we enter 2025," says Fiore. An Employment Index above 50.3 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data on manufacturing employment.
Of 18 manufacturing industries, the four industries reporting employment growth in January are: Chemical Products; Transportation Equipment; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components. The eight industries reporting a decrease in employment in January, in the following order, are: Textile Mills; Primary Metals; Furniture & Related Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Machinery; Computer & Electronic Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products.
Employment %Higher %Same %Lower Net Index
Jan 2025 11.7 75.1 13.2 -1.5 50.3
Dec 2024 7.0 75.3 17.7 -10.7 45.4
Nov 2024 14.2 65.3 20.5 -6.3 48.1
Oct 2024 9.0 70.6 20.4 -11.4 44.8
Supplier Deliveries(**
)Delivery performance of suppliers to manufacturing organizations was marginally slower in January, with the Supplier Deliveries Index registering 50.9 percent, a 0.8-percentage point increase compared to the reading of 50.1 percent reported in December. This expansion follows a contraction in November preceded by four consecutive months of slower deliveries, with four straight months of faster deliveries before that. After a reading of 52.4 percent in September 2022, the index went into contraction territory the following month and remained there for 20 out of 21 months (with February 2024 the exception). Of the six big industries, four (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Transportation Equipment; Computer & Electronic Products; and Machinery) reported slower supplier deliveries in January. "Supplier deliveries moved marginally deeper into 'slower' territory, as respondents indicated that supplier delivery performance continues to meet the expectations of their companies' customers. Panelists' comments support the fact that suppliers are having more difficulty in meeting companies' demands," says Fiore. A reading below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries, while a reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries.
The five manufacturing industries reporting slower supplier deliveries in January are: Textile Mills; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Transportation Equipment; Computer & Electronic Products; and Machinery. The three industries reporting faster supplier deliveries in January are: Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Fabricated Metal Products; and Chemical Products. Nine industries reported no change in supplier deliveries in January as compared to December.
Supplier Deliveries %Slower %Same %Faster Net Index
Jan 2025 7.8 86.2 6.0 +1.8 50.9
Dec 2024 6.4 87.4 6.2 +0.2 50.1
Nov 2024 5.7 86.0 8.3 -2.6 48.7
Oct 2024 11.9 80.1 8.0 +3.9 52.0
Inventories
The Inventories Index registered 45.9 percent in January, down 2.5 percentage points compared to the seasonally adjusted reading of 48.4 percent reported in December. The last time the Inventories Index registered above 50 percent was in August, when it registered 50.2 percent. "Manufacturing inventories contracted in January, as panelists' companies produced more goods and likely did not receive as much material as desired. The inventory account will most likely remain dynamic as supply and demand come into better balance," says Fiore. An Inventories Index greater than 44.5 percent, over time, is generally consistent with expansion in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) figures on overall manufacturing inventories (in chained 2000 dollars).
Of 18 manufacturing industries, the six industries reporting higher inventories in January -- listed in order -- are: Textile Mills; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Furniture & Related Products; Primary Metals; Machinery; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products. The seven industries reporting lower inventories in January -- in the following order -- are: Computer & Electronic Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Fabricated Metal Products; Paper Products; Transportation Equipment; Plastics & Rubber Products; and Chemical Products.
Inventories %Higher %Same %Lower Net Index
Jan 2025 12.2 67.4 20.4 -8.2 45.9
Dec 2024 14.4 64.8 20.8 -6.4 48.4
Nov 2024 15.5 63.2 21.3 -5.8 47.7
Oct 2024 14.2 59.1 26.7 -12.5 43.2
Customers' Inventories(**
)ISM(®)'s Customers' Inventories Index registered a reading of 46.7 percent in January, the same reading as reported in December. "Customers' inventory levels in January continue on the high side of 'too low.' Panelists are reporting that the amounts of their companies' products in their customers' inventories suggest a demand level that is positive for future production," says Fiore.
The five industries reporting customers' inventories as too high in January are: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Computer & Electronic Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Plastics & Rubber Products. The eight industries reporting customers' inventories as too low in January, in order, are: Textile Mills; Paper Products; Primary Metals; Machinery; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Transportation Equipment; Chemical Products; and Fabricated Metal Products.
Customers' % %Too %About %Too
Inventories Reporting High Right Low
Net Index
Jan
2025 77 9.0 75.4 15.6 -6.6 46.7
Dec
2024 78 11.5 70.3 18.2 -6.7 46.7
Nov
2024 77 10.6 75.5 13.9 -3.3 48.4
Oct
2024 80 12.2 69.1 18.7 -6.5 46.8
Prices(**
)The ISM(®) Prices Index registered 54.9 percent, 2.4 percentage points higher compared to the December reading of 52.5 percent, indicating raw materials prices increased for the fourth straight month in January after a decrease in September. Of the six largest manufacturing industries, four -- Petroleum & Coal Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Chemical Products; and Transportation Equipment -- reported price increases in January. "The Prices Index indicated increasing prices in January for the fourth consecutive month, likely reflecting the agreement and deployment of prices by buyers for 2025. Mill materials (steel, aluminum and copper), food elements and natural gas registered increases, offset by plastic resins and diesel fuel moving down in price. Twenty-one percent of companies reported higher prices in January, compared to 14 percent in December," says Fiore. A Prices Index above 52.8 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Producer Price Index for Intermediate Materials.
In January, the 11 industries that reported paying increased prices for raw materials, in order, are: Paper Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Primary Metals; Wood Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Chemical Products; and Transportation Equipment. The four industries report paying decreased prices for raw materials in January are: Textile Mills; Furniture & Related Products; Computer & Electronic Products; and Machinery.
Prices %Higher %Same %Lower Net Index
Jan 2025 20.7 68.3 11.0 +9.7 54.9
Dec 2024 14.4 76.1 9.5 +4.9 52.5
Nov 2024 12.2 76.1 11.7 +0.5 50.3
Oct 2024 19.8 69.9 10.3 +9.5 54.8
Backlog of Orders(**
)ISM(®)'s Backlog of Orders Index registered 44.9 percent, a decrease of 1 percentage point compared to the December reading of 45.9 percent, indicating order backlogs contracted for the 28th consecutive month after a 27-month period of expansion. None of the six largest manufacturing industries reported expanded order backlogs in January. "It appears that the extensive decline in order books has dramatically slowed, indicated by two months at moderate rather than significant contraction. By definition, the Backlog of Orders Index will be the last of the four demand indicators to enter expansion," says Fiore.
Of the 18 manufacturing industries, five reported growth in order backlogs in January: Textile Mills; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Primary Metals; Fabricated Metal Products; and Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components. The eight industries reporting lower backlogs in January -- in the following order -- are: Petroleum & Coal Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Wood Products; Chemical Products; Transportation Equipment; Machinery; and Computer & Electronic Products.
Backlog of % %Higher %Same %Lower Net Index
Orders Reporting
Jan 2025 93 12.6 64.6 22.8 -10.2 44.9
Dec 2024 91 14.9 62.0 23.1 -8.2 45.9
Nov 2024 92 14.5 54.6 30.9 -16.4 41.8
Oct 2024 93 14.1 56.4 29.5 -15.4 42.3
New Export Orders(**
)ISM(®)'s New Export Orders Index registered a reading of 52.4 percent in January, up 2.4 percentage points from December's "unchanged" reading of 50 percent. "The New Export Orders Index reading indicates that export orders grew compared to last month, following six straight months of contraction. New export orders expanded this month, as panelists' comments support more activity due to Chinese stimulus measures and as Beijing prepares for its own potential counter tariffs," says Fiore.
The seven industries reporting growth in new export orders in January -- in the following order -- are: Textile Mills; Primary Metals; Transportation Equipment; Chemical Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Machinery. The four industries reporting a decrease in new export orders in January are: Plastics & Rubber Products; Paper Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components.
New Export % %Higher %Same %Lower Net Index
Orders Reporting
Jan 2025 74 12.0 80.8 7.2 +4.8 52.4
Dec 2024 74 10.9 78.2 10.9 0.0 50.0
Nov 2024 75 10.6 76.1 13.3 -2.7 48.7
Oct 2024 74 7.7 75.6 16.7 -9.0 45.5
Imports(**
)ISM(®)'s Imports Index turned upward in January and returned to expansion territory; the reading of 51.1 percent is 1.4 percentage points higher compared to the reading of 49.7 percent reported in December. "Imports expanded this month after contracting for seven months in a row, preceded by five consecutive months of expansion and 14 consecutive months of contraction prior to that. Imports re-entered growth as inventory constraints weaken, tariff countermeasures are put in place, a ports strike was avoided and the deliveries from the Lunar New Year season arrive at U.S. ports," says Fiore.
The eight industries reporting an increase in import volumes in January, in order, are: Textile Mills; Wood Products; Furniture & Related Products; Machinery; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Computer & Electronic Products; and Transportation Equipment. The four industries that reported lower volumes of imports in January are: Paper Products; Primary Metals; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; and Chemical Products.
Imports % %Higher %Same %Lower Net Index
Reporting
Jan 2025 85 11.6 78.9 9.5 +2.1 51.1
Dec 2024 85 12.8 73.8 13.4 -0.6 49.7
Nov 2024 83 10.2 74.8 15.0 -4.8 47.6
Oct 2024 84 11.7 73.1 15.2 -3.5 48.3
(**)The Supplier Deliveries, Customers' Inventories, Prices, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, and Imports indexes do not meet the accepted criteria for seasonal adjustments.
Buying Policy
The average commitment lead time for Capital Expenditures in January was 168 days, a decrease of seven days compared to December. Average lead time in January for Production Materials was 83 days, an increase of two days compared to December. Average lead time for Maintenance, Repair and Operating (MRO) Supplies was 47 days, an increase of one day compared to December.
Percent Reporting
Capital Hand-
to- 30 Days 60 Days 90 Days 6 Months 1 Year+ Average
Expenditures Mouth Days
Jan 2025 17 4 8 15 30 26 168
Dec 2024 14 5 8 15 30 28 175
Nov 2024 16 4 9 15 29 27 170
Oct 2024 16 5 12 12 28 27 168
Percent Reporting
Production Hand-
to- 30 Days 60 Days 90 Days 6 Months 1 Year+ Average
Materials Mouth Days
Jan 2025 6 25 29 26 9 5 83
Dec 2024 7 25 28 27 8 5 81
Nov 2024 8 24 28 27 9 4 79
Oct 2024 9 25 26 26 9 5 81
Percent Reporting
MRO Supplies Hand-
to- 30 Days 60 Days 90 Days 6 Months 1 Year+ Average
Mouth Days
Jan 2025 29 34 19 11 6 1 47
Dec 2024 30 35 16 13 5 1 46
Nov 2024 30 34 17 13 6 0 44
Oct 2024 30 34 18 12 5 1 46
About This Report
DO NOT CONFUSE THIS NATIONAL REPORT with the various regional purchasing reports released across the country. The national report's information reflects the entire U.S., while the regional reports contain primarily regional data from their local vicinities. Also, the information in the regional reports is not used in calculating the results of the national report. The information compiled in this report is for the month of January 2025.
The data presented herein is obtained from a survey of manufacturing supply executives based on information they have collected within their respective organizations. ISM(®) makes no representation, other than that stated within this release, regarding the individual company data collection procedures. The data should be compared to all other economic data sources when used in decision-making.
Data and Method of Presentation
The Manufacturing ISM(®) Report On Business(®) is based on data compiled from purchasing and supply executives nationwide. The composition of the Manufacturing Business Survey Committee is stratified according to the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) and each of the following NAICS-based industries' contribution to gross domestic product (GDP): Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Textile Mills; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Wood Products; Paper Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Petroleum & Coal Products; Chemical Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Primary Metals; Fabricated Metal Products; Machinery; Computer & Electronic Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Transportation Equipment; Furniture & Related Products; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing (products such as medical equipment and supplies, jewelry, sporting goods, toys and office supplies). The data is weighted based on each industry's contribution to GDP. According to BEA estimates (the average of the fourth quarter 2023 GDP estimate and the GDP estimates for first, second, and third quarter 2024, as released on December 19, 2024), the six largest manufacturing industries are: Chemical Products; Transportation Equipment; Computer & Electronic Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Machinery; and Petroleum & Coal Products.
Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month. For nine indicators (New Orders, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, Imports, Production, Supplier Deliveries, Inventories, Employment, and Prices), this report shows the percentage reporting each response, the net difference between the number of responses in the positive economic direction (higher, better and slower for Supplier Deliveries) and the negative economic direction (lower, worse and faster for Supplier Deliveries), and the diffusion index. For Customers' Inventories, respondents report their assessment of their customers' stock levels of respondent companies' products this month (rather than last month): too high, about right, and too low. Responses are raw data and are never changed. The diffusion index includes the percent of positive responses plus one-half of those responding the same (considered positive).
The resulting single index number for those meeting the criteria for seasonal adjustments (Manufacturing PMI(®), New Orders, Production, Employment and Inventories) is then seasonally adjusted to allow for the effects of repetitive intra-year variations resulting primarily from normal differences in weather conditions, various institutional arrangements, and differences attributable to non-moveable holidays. All seasonal adjustment factors are subject annually to relatively minor changes when conditions warrant them. The Manufacturing PMI(®) is a composite index based on the diffusion indexes of five of the indexes with equal weights: New Orders (seasonally adjusted), Production (seasonally adjusted), Employment (seasonally adjusted), Supplier Deliveries, and Inventories (seasonally adjusted).
Diffusion indexes have the properties of leading indicators and are convenient summary measures showing the prevailing direction of change and the scope of change. A Manufacturing PMI(®) reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally declining. A Manufacturing PMI(®) above 42.3 percent, over a period of time, indicates that the overall economy, or gross domestic product (GDP), is generally expanding; below 42.3 percent, it is generally declining. The distance from 50 percent or 42.3 percent is indicative of the extent of the expansion or decline. With some of the indicators within this report, ISM(®) has indicated the departure point between expansion and decline of comparable government series, as determined by regression analysis. For the Customers' Inventories Index, numerically, a reading: above 50 percent is "too high," equal to 50 percent is "about right," and below 50 percent is "too low." However, in practice and in the context of other data, customers' inventories may be considered to be "about right" if the diffusion index is between 52 percent (the high side of about right) and 48 percent (the low side of about right).
The Manufacturing ISM(®) Report On Business(®) survey is sent out to Manufacturing Business Survey Committee respondents the first part of each month. Respondents are asked to report on information for the current month for U.S. operations only. ISM(®) receives survey responses throughout most of any given month, with the majority of respondents generally waiting until late in the month to submit responses to give the most accurate picture of current business activity. ISM(®) then compiles the report for release on the first business day of the following month.
The industries reporting growth, as indicated in the Manufacturing ISM(®) Report On Business(®) monthly report, are listed in the order of most growth to least growth. For the industries reporting contraction or decreases, those are listed in the order of the highest level of contraction/decrease to the least level of contraction/decrease.
Responses to Buying Policy reflect the percent reporting the current month's lead time, the approximate weighted number of days ahead for which commitments are made for Capital Expenditures; Production Materials; and Maintenance, Repair and Operating (MRO) Supplies, expressed as hand-to-mouth (five days), 30 days, 60 days, 90 days, six months (180 days), a year or more (360 days), and the weighted average number of days. These responses are raw data, never revised, and not seasonally adjusted.
ISM ROB Content
The Institute for Supply Management(®) ("ISM") Report On Business(®) (both Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing) ("ISM ROB") contains information, text, files, images, video, sounds, musical works, works of authorship, applications, and any other materials or content (collectively, "Content") of ISM ("ISM ROB Content"). ISM ROB Content is protected by copyright, trademark, trade secret, and other laws, and as between you and ISM, ISM owns and retains all rights in the ISM ROB Content. ISM hereby grants you a limited, revocable, nonsublicensable license to access and display on your individual device the ISM ROB Content (excluding any software code) solely for your personal, non-commercial use. The ISM ROB Content shall also contain Content of users and other ISM licensors. Except as provided herein or as explicitly allowed in writing by ISM, you shall not copy, download, stream, capture, reproduce, duplicate, archive, upload, modify, translate, publish, broadcast, transmit, retransmit, distribute, perform, display, sell, or otherwise use any ISM ROB Content.
Except as explicitly and expressly permitted by ISM, you are strictly prohibited from creating works or materials (including but not limited to tables, charts, data streams, time-series variables, fonts, icons, link buttons, wallpaper, desktop themes, online postcards, montages, mashups and similar videos, greeting cards, and unlicensed merchandise) that derive from or are based on the ISM ROB Content. This prohibition applies regardless of whether the derivative works or materials are sold, bartered, or given away. You shall not either directly or through the use of any device, software, internet site, web-based service, or other means remove, alter, bypass, avoid, interfere with, or circumvent any copyright, trademark, or other proprietary notices marked on the Content or any digital rights management mechanism, device, or other content protection or access control measure associated with the Content including geo-filtering mechanisms. Without prior written authorization from ISM, you shall not build a business utilizing the Content, whether or not for profit.
You shall not create, recreate, distribute, incorporate in other work, or advertise an index of any portion of the Content unless you receive prior written authorization from ISM. Requests for permission to reproduce or distribute ISM ROB Content can be made by contacting in writing at: ISM Research, Institute for Supply Management, 309 West Elliot Road, Suite 113, Tempe, Arizona 85284-1556, or by emailing kcahill@ismworld.org. Subject: Content Request.
ISM shall not have any liability, duty, or obligation for or relating to the ISM ROB Content or other information contained herein, any errors, inaccuracies, omissions or delays in providing any ISM ROB Content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon. In no event shall ISM be liable for any special, incidental, or consequential damages arising out of the use of the ISM ROB. Report On Business(®), PMI(®), Manufacturing PMI(®), Services PMI(®), Hospital PMI(®), and NMI(®) are registered trademarks of Institute for Supply Management(®). Institute for Supply Management(®) and ISM(®) are registered trademarks of Institute for Supply Management, Inc.
About Institute for Supply Management(® )(ISM(®))
Institute for Supply Management(®) (ISM(®)) is the first and leading not-for-profit professional supply management organization worldwide. Its community of more than 50,000 in more than 100 countries manages about US$1 trillion in corporate and government supply chain procurement annually. Founded in 1915 by practitioners, ISM is committed to advancing the practice of supply management to drive value and competitive advantage for its members, contributing to a prosperous and sustainable world. ISM empowers and leads the profession through the ISM(®) Report On Business(®), its highly regarded certification and training programs, corporate services, events and assessments. The ISM(®) Report On Business(®), Manufacturing, Services, and Hospital, are three of the most reliable economic indicators available, providing guidance to supply management professionals, economists, analysts, and government and business leaders. For more information, please visit: www.ismworld.org.
The full text version of the Manufacturing ISM(®) Report On Business(®) is posted on ISM(®)'s website at www.ismrob.org on the first business day* of every month after 10:00 a.m. ET. The one exception is in January when the report is released on the second business day of the month.
The next Manufacturing ISM(®) Report On Business(®) featuring February 2025 data will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET on Monday, March 3, 2025.
*Unless the New York Stock Exchange is closed.
Contact: Kristina Cahill
Report On Business
(R)
Analyst
ISM(R), ROB/Research
Manager
Tempe, Arizona
+1 480.455.5910
Email:
kcahill@ismworld.org
View original content to download multimedia:https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/manufacturing-pmi-at-50-9-january-2025-manufacturing-ism-report-on-business-302365753.html
SOURCE Institute for Supply Management
|
|
|
|
|
|
 |
Energy Toolbase Launches Energy Storage Partnership with Sungrow to Support PowerStack 255CS and PowerTitan 2.0 | Jan 22, 2026
|
|
RS now offers Phoenix Contact's pioneering new NearFi technology | Jan 22, 2026
|
|
MetaOptics to Showcase Five Breakthrough Metalens-Powered Products at CES 2026 | Jan 22, 2026
|
|
Quantum Art Raises $100 Million in Series A Round to Drive Scalable, Multi-Core Quantum Computing | Jan 22, 2026
|
|
Fresco Raises EUR15m Series C to Power the Future of AI-Driven Cooking and the Connected Kitchen Ecosystem | Jan 22, 2026
|
|
No Assembly Required: Barrett Distribution Centers Powers Maxwood Furniture's West Coast DTC Expansion | Jan 22, 2026
|
|
SCAILIUM Debuts "AI Production Layer" to Overcome GPU Starvation and Slash AI Energy Waste | Jan 22, 2026
|
|
Hesai Recognized as the Only Lidar Company on Morgan Stanley's "Humanoid Tech 25" of Global Robotics Leaders | Jan 22, 2026
|
|
Einride and IonQ Partnership Uses Quantum Computing to Optimize the Logistics of Electric and Autonomous Freight | Jan 22, 2026
|
|
Lumana Surpasses 50,000 Cameras, Cementing Its Leadership in AI Video Surveillance | Jan 22, 2026
|
|
|
|
