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Major new ETC report presents complete picture of global buildings sector emissions and pathways to decarbonisation
Tuesday, February 11, 2025
LONDON, Feb. 4, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- The latest report from the Energy Transitions Commission, Achieving Zero-Carbon Buildings: Electric, Efficient and Flexible, draws a complete picture of the buildings sector's emissions and energy use and describes how a combination of electric, efficient and flexible solutions can decarbonise buildings, improve standards of living, and reduce energy bills if supported by ambitious policy.
The global buildings sector currently contributes a third of greenhouse gas emissions (12.3 GtCO(2 )in 2022).([1] )This comes from the use of fossil fuels for heating, cooling, cooking, lighting, powering appliances, and constructing residential and commercial buildings.
There is not a one-size-fits-all solution for decarbonisation, as different solutions work for different building types, countries, and climates, but three key priorities stand out for creating a zero-carbon dioxide emissions buildings sector:
1. Electrification replacing fossil fuels: Decarbonising heating and cooking
is essential. Currently, gas and oil heating accounts for 8% of global
emissions, or 3 GtCO(2). Switching from fossil-based heating and cooking
to cost-effective electric and efficient technologies, such as heat pumps
and electric hobs, is crucial and must be accompanied by the continued
decarbonisation of electricity generation. By 2050, 80% of the energy
used in buildings could be electricity; this would bring annual emissions
from building use close to zero if electricity supply is decarbonised by
then.
2. Dramatically improving energy efficiency: Rising use of air conditioners
and the electrification of heating and cooking would result in
electricity demand for buildings almost tripling, from 12,800 TWh to
around 35,000 TWh by 2050 if energy efficiency is not simultaneously
increased. But this could be reduced to around 18,500 TWh via a
combination of:- Improvements in the technical efficiency of heat pumps,
air conditioners, and other appliances.- Improvements in the energy
efficiency of both new and existing buildings, considering a range of
so-called "passive heating and cooling" building design techniques, such
as insulation and painting roofs white in hot countries.- Smart building
management systems and consumer choices which avoid wasteful use of
heating or cooling.These improvements, together with the deployment of
building-level batteries and other energy storage, smart building control
systems, and rooftop solar generation are particularly important for
reducing the growth of peak electricity demand, which is a crucial driver
of electricity system costs.
3. Constructing efficient and low-carbon buildings: Constructing new
buildings accounts for 7% of global emissions a year, or 2.5 GtCO(2).
Global floor area (area covered by buildings) is set to expand by 55% by
2050 (or 140 billion m(2), which is almost 150 times the size of Hong
Kong), predominantly in Asia, Africa and South America. If the average
carbon intensity of construction remains unchanged, this expansion would
result in a cumulative 75 GtCO(2) emissions between now and 2050.([2])
These cumulative emissions could be reduced to around 30 GtCO(2) via a
combination of:- Decarbonising the production of steel, cement, concrete,
and other building materials.- Using fewer materials in building
construction via lightweight design and modular construction or using
less carbon-intensive materials such as timber.- Better utilising
existing buildings via extended building lifetimes and shared working
spaces.
"Decarbonising the buildings sector is a story of many transitions. It's vital for our climate goals and it's an opportunity to improve living standards and reduce energy costs. Electric heating and cooking technologies will significantly improve air quality and have lower running costs than gas heating and traditional use of biomass. Cooling is essential to quality of life, especially as global warming intensifies due to man-made emissions. It is possible to achieve zero-emissions, efficient, and flexible homes with low-carbon building design techniques and technology that runs on clean electricity." said Adair Turner, Chair of the Energy Transitions Commission.
However, implementing some of the decarbonisation options for buildings poses more complex challenges than faced in other sectors of the economy, for instance:
-- For existing buildings, residential and commercial building owners can
choose from many different low-carbon technologies and options to
improve the energy efficiency of their homes, some of which can be
disruptive and involve high upfront costs (e.g., roof or wall
insulation, new windows, higher-efficiency heating and ventilation
systems). The availability and cost of finance vary greatly between low
and high-income households and across countries. Government policies
must therefore combine clear targets to ban the sale of fossil-fuel
boilers and cookers, with financial support for low-income families, as
well as external finance (e.g., from multilateral development banks) to
lower-income countries.
-- For new construction, specific optimal solutions vary by country,
regional climate, and building type, and there are sometimes trade-offs
to be struck between designing to minimise construction emissions versus
in-use operational emissions. In addition, construction sectors often
entail complex value chains of subcontracting and a large role for small
and medium enterprises. Careful design and implementation of building
design and construction codes, learning from international experience
but tailored to specific circumstances is therefore vital.
"Unless we can radically decarbonise buildings we will fail to keep global warming under 1.5°C outlined in the Paris Accord. To do that we need to make changes all the way through the design, delivery and operation of buildings - from electrification of heating and passive cooling, to reducing embodied carbon emissions for new buildings and refurbishments." said Stephen Hill, Sustainability and Building Performance Expert at Arup. "This will require collaboration right across sector, between governments, industry bodies and private companies. We need to be ambitious, but if we get it right we can cut carbon, generate value for our economy and improve people's quality of life through action like improving living conditions and reducing fuel poverty."
Given the complexity of the buildings sector decarbonisation challenge, the report sets out a detailed analysis of 7 different, though overlapping, challenges. Summaries of the nature of the problem, clean technologies, and actions required can be accessed via the links below:
Topic
Key audience
The heating decarbonisation challenge (focus on Northern latitude countries) Policymakers, residential households, energy and technology
companies,
How electric heating and cost-effective insulation can displace fossil fuels. financial institutions
Increasing access to affordable cooling
Managing rising demand in a warming Policymakers, residential and commercial building owners
climate with a combination of passive cooling and efficient air conditioning
Improving access to clean cooking
Eliminating the traditional use of biomass in
Policymakers, residential homeowners
low-income countries and shifting to electric cooking solutions globally.
Efficient lighting and appliances
Improving the energy efficiency of lighting and
Commercial building owners, technology companies
appliances in residential and commercial buildings.
Decarbonising commercial buildings
Creating strong market demand signals Policymakers, financial institutions, building owners,
commercial
for low-carbon, efficient, and flexible buildings. businesses
Buildings within a clean energy system
Managing total and peak electricity Policymakers, energy companies and network operators
demand from buildings via efficiency and flexibility.
The new build opportunity
Decarbonising steel and cement, combined with Policymakers, developers, construction companies, financial
institutions
better building techniques
"Buildings are responsible for one-third of the world's carbon emissions. Harnessing the power of electrification, on-site generation, digital controls, IoT, big data and digital twins can make a net zero-carbon future in our built environment possible. Incorporating these technologies into new constructions or retrofitting existing buildings benefits the planet as well as the safety, resilience, and comfort of our buildings." said Jean-Pascal Tricoire, Chairman of Schneider Electric.
"WorldGBC mobilises a global network towards the just transition of the built environment for people and planet. We are proud to support this ETC report. It is a timely reminder of the connection between buildings and the energy system. The two are intrinsically linked - we cannot decarbonise one without the other." said Cristina Gamboa, CEO of World Green Building Council (WorldGBC).
"A comprehensive, informative and crucial contribution to advance climate action, this ETC report on building decarbonization provides a holistic and pragmatic view of how the building sector can transition to a low-carbon future. A must-read for policymakers and industry leaders alike, the report's regional approach ensures tailored solutions and valuable insights from best practice to turn ambition into action." said Roxanna Slavcheva, Global Lead for Built Environment at World Resources Institute (WRI).
Achieving Zero-Carbon Buildings: Electric, Efficient and Flexible has been developed in collaboration with ETC members from across industry, financial institutions, and civil society. The ETC is a global coalition of leaders from across the energy landscape committed to achieving net-zero emissions by mid-century whose members include Arup, bp, HSBC, Iberdrola, National Grid, Octopus Energy, Petronas, Saint Gobain, Schneider Electric, Shell, SSE, Rabobank, Vattenfall, We Mean Business, and World Resources Institute. This report constitutes a collective view of the ETC, however, it should not be taken as members agreeing with every finding or recommendation.
Download the report: https://www.energy-transitions.org/publications/achieving-zero-carbon-buildings
For further information on the ETC please visit: https://www.energy-transitions.org
[1] IEA (2023), Buildings, available at www.iea.org/energy-system/buildings.
[2] Forster et al. (2024), Indicators of Global Climate Change 2023: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence.
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SOURCE Energy Transitions Commission
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