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Deloitte: Holiday Retail Sales Expected to Increase 2.9% to 3.4%
Thursday, September 18, 2025
E-commerce holiday sales projected to grow between 7% and 9%, similar to the 2024 season
NEW YORK, Sept. 10, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- Holiday retail sales are likely to increase between 2.9% and 3.4% in 2025, according to Deloitte's annual holiday retail forecast.
Overall, Deloitte's retail and consumer products practice projects holiday sales will total $1.61 trillion to $1.62 trillion during the November to January timeframe. In 2024, holiday sales grew by 4.2% in the same period.
E-commerce is expected to grow at a healthy pace of between 7% and 9% year-over-year during the 2025-2026 holiday season, thereby contributing to overall retail sales growth during this period. Deloitte forecasts e-commerce sales between $305 billion and $310.7 billion this season.
"We anticipate disposable personal income (DPI), a key driver of retail sales, to grow between 3.1% to 5.4% this holiday season. Our research indicates that DPI is a sound predictor of retail sales and e-commerce sales. Steady growth in income can help offset some economic uncertainty, including any labor market weakness and the burden of high credit card and student debt on consumer spending," said Akrur Barua, economist, Deloitte Insights. "While elevated inflation will likely weigh on the volume of retail sales growth, it will nevertheless be a tailwind for the dollar value spent on retail purchases in the holiday season."
According to Natalie Martini, vice chair, Deloitte, and U.S. retail and consumer products leader, "We expect this holiday season to demonstrate the resiliency of consumers as they continue to face economic uncertainty. Our forecast anticipates that e-commerce sales will stay strong as consumers keep leveraging online deals to stretch their spending power. Retailers who remain focused on delivering value throughout the season have a prime opportunity to drive growth during what continues to be a critical time for their businesses."
Note to editors:
Deloitte is forecasting a 2.9% to 3.4% increase in total 2025 holiday sales compared with the same period in 2024. Retail sales between November 2024 and January 2025 (seasonally adjusted and excluding automotive and gasoline) grew 4.2% and totaled $1.57 trillion according to the U.S. Census Bureau.
Deloitte is forecasting a 7% to 9% increase in 2025 holiday e-commerce sales compared with the same period in 2024. E-commerce sales between November 2024 and January 2025 (seasonally adjusted and excluding gasoline stations, motor vehicles and parts dealers, and food services) grew 8.0% totaling an estimated $285 billion.
About Deloitte
Deloitte provides industry-leading audit, consulting, tax and advisory services to many of the world's most admired brands, including nearly 90% of the Fortune 500(®) and more than 8,500 U.S.-based private companies. At Deloitte, we strive to live our purpose of making an impact that matters for our people, clients, and communities. We bring together distinct talents, technologies, disciplines, and an ecosystem of alliances to help tackle today's most complex business challenges and drive long-term progress. Deloitte is proud to be part of the largest global professional services network serving our clients in the markets that are most important to them. Bringing 180 years of service, our network of member firms spans more than 150 countries and territories. Learn how Deloitte's approximately 460,000 people worldwide connect for impact at www.deloitte.com.
Deloitte refers to one or more of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited, a UK private company limited by guarantee ("DTTL"), its network of member firms, and their related entities. DTTL and each of its member firms are legally separate and independent entities. DTTL (also referred to as "Deloitte Global") does not provide services to clients. In the United States, Deloitte refers to one or more of the US member firms of DTTL, their related entities that operate using the "Deloitte" name in the United States and their respective affiliates. Certain services may not be available to attest clients under the rules and regulations of public accounting. Please see www.deloitte.com/about to learn more about our global network of member firms.
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SOURCE Deloitte
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